Tuesday, 22 January 2008

Future Malware Creation Hotspots Revealed

Most of today's Internet criminals are operating from Russia, China and Southern America and over the next five years, there will be a significant increase in attacks from Central America, India, China and Africa, according to a prediction from security specialists at F-Secure...

Most of today's Internet criminals are operating from Russia, China and Southern America and over the next five years, there will be a significant increase in attacks from Central America, India, China and Africa, according to a prediction from security specialists at F-Secure.

Researchers at F-Secure’s Security Labs who have been studying Internet crime trends since the 1980s said that from 1986 to 2003 old-school virus writers were operating from areas in Europe, United States, Australia and India that the era was characterized by opportunistic “hobbyists” learning their craft.

From 2003 to 2007, the “hobbyism” was however replaced by profession, targeted attacks.

And the future is set to attract new e-criminal groups with Internet crime becoming even more sophisticated with targeted attacks and exploits, a direct result of the alignment between broadband penetration and socio-economic factors such as economic development and lack of IT employment opportunities.

Mikko Hypponen, chief research officer at F-Secure, believes malware creation hotspots are defined by a number of socio-economic causes – particularly in terms of job opportunities.

“Within the last few years, Internet take-up in emerging markets has been phenomenal. For example, Brazil now has over two million Internet users,” said Hypponen.

With Internet usage growing fastest in Asia, followed by Africa, IT job growth will be lacking behind, creating a breeding ground for online criminals.

“The trend is expected to continue and spread into areas such as Africa, India and Central America,” predicts Hypponen.

“This is partly due to the limited IT job prospects in these markets. People are developing sophisticated computer skills, but have limited opportunities to profit from them legally."

According to F-Secure, in many countries there will be a delay before the legal system catches up with developments in the IT sector. Computer criminals may also be able to escape the law more easily in countries which are undergoing serious political and security problems.